Trend Following Historical Performance

Statistical and Historical Proof Of Trend Following Success

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A first step for trend following success is to absorb prior trend following success.

Why? It breeds confidence.

The data assembled on this page demonstrates what is possible with trend following–historically speaking. Consider two pieces of research that outline trend trading success going back over 100 years:

A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing (PDF)

Two Centuries of Trend Following (PDF)

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Consider trend following fortunes:

John W. Henry: Henry is a trend following trader featured in Trend Following. He is worth $2.1 billion (source). He used his trend following gains to buy the Boston Red Sox for $700 million.

Bruce Kovner: Kovner is a trend following trader featured in Jack Schwager’s ‘Market Wizards.’ He was trained by trend follower Michael Marcus. Marcus was trained by Ed Seykota. More on Seykota can be found in Trend Following. Kovner is worth over $5.3 billion (source).

Bill Dunn: Dunn is a trend following trader featured in Trend Following. Dunn made $80 million in 2008 when the rest of the world was blowing up.

Michael Marcus: Marcus is a trend following trader featured in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards. He turned an initial $30,000 into $80 million (source).

David Harding: Harding is a trend following trader featured in Trend Following. He is worth over $1.387 billion (source).

Ed Seykota: Seykota is a trend following trader featured in Trend Following. He turned $5,000 into $15 million over 12 years in his model account (an actual client account).

Kenneth Tropin: Tropin is a trend follower who made $120 million in 2008 as buy and hold collapsed. Earlier in his career he led John W. Henry’s firm.

Those trend followers all started as one-man shops and that is inspirational. A small fraction of those huge fortunes would satisfy most people.